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SENCO GOLD – “Expressions of Love” – Timeless Jewelry Designs

While gold prices do affect Senco Gold’s business, its stock price is primarily shaped by retail expansion, financial performance, and consumer trends. And within this segment, Senco Gold is well-positioned for sustained growth, leveraging franchise expansion, diamond jewelry focus, and strategic partnerships. Its financial strength and market positioning make it a compelling investment opportunity.

Compared to other Jewelry brands, Senco Gold stands out sure to its regional dominance, franchise models and product segmentation. What makes it unique is:

Strong Eastern India Presence

  • Largest organized retail jewelry player in Eastern India, with dominance in Bengal, Odisha, and Assam,
  • 145 stores, including 83 company-owned and 62 franchise stores, allowing rapid expansion.

Franchise-Based Growth Model

  • Unlike other brands, which rely on company-owned stores, Senco Gold has a strong franchise network,
  • Franchise stores contribute 35% of revenue, ensuring capital-light expansion.

Product Segmentation & Brand Positioning

  • Premium jewelry with an average ticket price of ₹76,900,
  • Affordable jewelry, catering to mass-market consumers,
  • 80% hedged against gold price fluctuations, ensuring stable margins.

Competitive Pricing & Inventory Turnover

  • Franchise stores achieve 2x inventory turnover in the first year, reaching 3x by the third year,
  • Gross margins → 18% for company-owned stores, 10-12% for franchise stores.

Financial Performance (FY25 & FY26 Outlook)

  • Q4 FY25 Revenue → ₹1,378 crore, up 21% YoY,
  • Net Profit Surge → ₹62 crore, a 94% increase from last year,
  • EBITDA Margin Expansion → Expected to reach 6.8–7.2% in FY26, up from 6.5–6.8% in FY25,
  • Diamond Jewelry Growth → Sales grew 39% in Q4, now contributing 11% of total revenue

Growth Strategy & Expansion Plans

  • Franchise-Led Expansion → Increasing franchisee stores beyond the previous 50% target.
  • Gen Z & Millennial Focus → Signed a master-franchisee agreement with, a lightweight jewelry brand,
  • Old Gold Exchange Growth → 39% of total sales now come from recycled gold, with 60% from non-Senco customers,
  • Investment in Diamonds → Targeting 25–30% growth in diamond sales in FY26

What do Charts Say

  • If we look at the Monthly chart then it is hitting Average Volume Weighted Price (AWVAP), means all the selling has been absorbed by institutional players,
  • However, June month seems to be a consolidation Month after a steep rise of last 3 months and hence a good month to make an entry,
  • On Weekly chart (middle), it is kissing 20 EMA, but RSI is above 40 and MACD cross over has happened, which means a good probability of crossing over Weekly 20 EMA decisively,
  • Daily chart shows that Cup & Handle in progress and stock is gathering momentum to take down recent highs of 400s, with 1st target as 480 and 2nd target as 580 and STOP LOSS as 320, with Risk Reward ratio of ~ 2
  • Overall target remains at 1000
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